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Introduction to the New TenBestStocks Market Signal
™
Since
TenBestStocks’ launch in May 1999 the information that
TenBestStocks provides has been limited to identifying stocks
for exceptional growth and resistance to decline over rational
investment periods. The long-term performance of the current
100% invested TenBestStocks Model Portfolio has certainly been
exceptional as compared to the key market indices. This
performance has been achieved during highly variable market
periods impacted by war, natural disasters, economic turmoil,
and financial crisis.
To date,
however, the TenBestStocks computer model has been stock and
industry specific and has not addressed future market direction
– or market timing. As knowledgeable investors, however, we
know that a significant element of overall stock portfolio
performance (perhaps 35% or more) is directly related to the
entry and exit timing of investments. There is no question that
valid market timing information providing the ability to better
capture gains during market up periods and better limit losses
during market down periods would have a material positive impact
on an investor’s overall return on his individual portfolio.
Over the
past several months TenBestStocks has worked intensively to
develop a clear, quantitative, and fact-based system to aid its
subscribers in establishing the best portfolio management
strategies for market entry and market exit. This new market
timing tool described below was created using the same objective
engineering principles employed in the TenBestStocks Computer
Model.
Effective today September 29, 2008, we are introducing the new
TenBestStocks Market Signal (TMS)
to provide TenBestStocks’ subscribers with a significantly
improved tool for anticipating the future change in the general
stock market – and the TenBestStocks Model Portfolio
specifically. Based solely on mathematically measurable data and
fully back tested to TenBestStocks’ inception in May 1999 the
TMS provides TenBestStocks subscribers with a clear indicator
for potential appreciation or depreciation in the value of the
TenBestStocks Model Portfolio. We firmly believe that the new
TMS will materially improve a subscriber’s ability to manage his
portfolio effectively during volatile market periods.
What is the New
TenBestStocks Market Signal?
The TMS is
a calculated value on a scale between 1 and 10. A TMS value
less than 5 (the "Red Zone") indicates a greater potential for
decline in the TenBestStocks Model Portfolio while a TMS value
greater than 5 (the "Green Zone") represents a greater potential
for appreciation in the TenBestStocks Model Portfolio (See table
below).
|
TenBestStocks Market Signal Value |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
|
Limited new investment
capital preservation |
Prudent new investing
strategic stop loss |
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Each
Tuesday the current TMS value is calculated and provided on the
home page of the TenBestStocks Members Web. The weekly TMS
values from the prior 13 weeks along with a complete history of
weekly TMS values since May 1999 will be maintained and
available to subscribers on the Members Website. As described
below the TMS can be used to anticipate project future market
direction and more effectively manage your own portfolio.
How is the New
TenBestStocks Market Signal Used?
Reviewing
the TMS each week the TenBestStocks subscriber can assess
whether his specific portfolio management strategy is
appropriate for potential future market conditions.
As stated
above a TMS value in the "Red Zone" (below 5) indicates a
prospective bear market period – a market under selling pressure
and the prospect of lower stock prices. Conversely a TMS value
in the "Green Zone" (above 5) indicates a prospective bull
market period – a market with greater buyer demand and the
prospect of higher stock prices.
During
confirmed bear market periods TMS values have been shown to be
consistently in the "Red Zone" while during confirmed bull
market periods TMS values have been shown to be consistently in
the "Green Zone." A change in market direction is signaled by
two consecutive weeks of TMS value change.
·
Confirmed bear market periods are defined as having consistent “Red
Zone” TMS values with no more than one consecutive TMS value
greater than 5. A change from a “Green Zone” bull market period
to a “Red Zone” bear market period is be signaled by two
consecutive weeks of a TMS less than 5.
·
Confirmed bull market periods have consistent “Green Zone” TMS values
with no more than one consecutive TMS value less than 5. A
change from a “Red Zone” bear market period to a “Green Zone”
bull market period would be signaled by two consecutive weeks of
a TMS greater than 5.
The weekly
TMS and the confirmed current market condition (“Green” or
“Red”) will be clearly stated each week on the Members Website.
Using the TMS we believe that the astute investor can develop
an effective personal portfolio management strategy with an eye
toward where the market is headed.
What's the Basis for the TenBestStocks Market Signal?
So how do
we know that the TMS really works? A discussion of the TMS
validating its basis and development is provided below:
The TMS
uses 100% objective, measurable, and publicly available data
which includes valuations, sponsorship, and market trends. It
was developed to provide a quantitative measure of the current
position of the market relative to its future direction.
Designed using a professional engineering discipline the TMS was
back tested weekly from the inception of TenBestStocks in May
1999 to determine its accuracy in projecting future market
direction. Here are the results:
For the
period May 29, 1999 (the TenBestStocks launch date) through
September 24, 2008, the new TMS was calculated weekly based on
the Tuesday market close. Beginning with an initial $10,000
investment the TenBestStocks Model Portfolio was managed using
the “two consecutive week” discipline” described above.
During
bull market “Green Zone” periods the TMS identified the
TenBestStocks Model Portfolio was 100% equity. During bear
market “Red Zone” periods the TenBestStocks Model Portfolio was
100% cash. Neither trade transaction costs nor interest income
on cash are included.
All
portfolio transactions were performed based on the Wednesday
closing price consistent with the current discipline. This
includes the normal weekly portfolio buy/sell equity
adjustments, cash-to-equity transaction (“Red Zone” to “Green
Zone” changes), and equity-to-cash adjustments (“Green Zone” to
“Red Zone” changes).
For the
period May 29, 1999 to September 24, 2008
·
The TMS identified 30 time periods of market gain (325 weeks)
representing 66.7% of the total (487 weeks). The average for
each identified period was 13.3 weeks in length with an average
TenBestStocks Model Portfolio appreciation of +9.63%.
·
The TMS identified 30 periods of market decline (162 weeks)
representing 33.3% of the total (487 weeks). The average for
each period identified was 7.0 weeks in length with an average
TenBestStocks Model Portfolio decline of minus 2.49%.
·
On September 24, 2008, the value of the TenBestStocks Model Portfolio
was worth $75,085 representing a total return of 650.9% (or
24.3%/yr).
A complete
data summary of
Bull and
Bear Market Periods
identified is provided.
On the
above basis the new TenBestStocks Model Portfolio
outperformed the current TenBestStocks Model Portfolio by nearly
125% which had a value of $33,440 on September 24, 2008. Over
the same period it dramatically outperformed the S&P 500 which
had a negative return of minus 6.5%.
Cash
Percentage and Stop Loss Limit Considerations
Cash
Percentage and Stop Loss Limits are two key factors to be
addressed by the TenBestStocks investor utilizing the TMS as a
tool in establishing his portfolio management strategy:
·
Establish the percentage of cash to be maintained during periods of
equity investment. Obviously, the more capital invested in
equities during bull market periods the greater the opportunity
for portfolio appreciation.
·
Determine the stop loss level for invested equities to reduce the risk
of loss because of the decline in individual stocks. Tighter
the stop loss limits typically result in greater portfolio
rotation, greater transaction costs, and more portfolio
management time requirements.
Using the
TMS the impact of portfolio cash position and stop loss limits
on the new TenBestStocks Model Portfolio performance has been
fully analyzed and the results of this evaluation are summarized
in the
Cash vs Stop Loss Table
.
The yellow
region indicated on this table reflects those conditions of
“Minimum Cash Percentage Maintained” and “Stop Loss Percentage
Maintained” which exceed the base condition return for 100% Cash
and 0% Stop Loss for the period May 28, 1999 to September 24,
2008 (755.3%). Review of this table confirms the following:
·
The portfolio return (%) increases with decreasing cash position
maintained.
·
Strategic stop losses are critical to maximizing portfolio return.
Maintaining an average stop loss limit between 2% and 10% will
significantly improve portfolio return.
Recognizing these important relationships the TenBestStocks
investor can then potentially design an appropriate portfolio
management strategy.
Portfolio Management Strategy
The
elements described below represent an example of how a
TenBestStocks investor can structure his basic strategy:
1.
Establish the cash position to be maintained based on the
investors comfort level. A typical cash position for the
TenBestStocks investor during “Green Zone” periods ranges
between 10% and 25%.
2.
Establish the number of stocks to be managed within the
portfolio. The typical investor maintains a portfolio of
between 7 and 12 stocks depending on the time commitment he can
make.
3.
Establish a discipline for stock acquisition to assure adequate
diversification between markets, industries, and segments.
4.
Monitor the TMS each week as a guide for market entry or exit.
Consider limiting or abstaining from new investments during
confirmed “Red Zone” periods and prudently investing during
confirmed “Green Zone” periods.
5.
During
“Green Zone” periods maintain stop losses based on the Suggested
Exit Pricing provided on the Members Website.
6.
During
“Red Zone” periods promptly establish tight stop losses on all
stocks (1% to 3%) depending on the issue and limit or abstain
from new investment.
Future Actions and Changes
As stated
previously immediately TenBestStocks will begin posting the new
TMS on the Members Website on a weekly basis. This posting will
include the current TMS value, the current market status
(“Green” or “Red”), TMS values for the past 13 weeks, return
since last market status change, and a link to the master TMS
history.
Additionally, the current TenBestStocks Model Portfolio will be
renamed the TenBestStocks Index. The redefined TenBestStocks
Model Portfolio will now become the TenBestStocks Model
Portfolio. Both will be monitored and updated weekly on the
TenBestStocks website. No changes will be made in the method by
which the TenBestStocks Index is calculated each week. The new
TenBestStocks Model Portfolio will be calculated on the basis of
100% equity during confirmed “Green Zone” periods and 100% cash
during confirmed “Red Zone” periods.
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